Sina Tech News, November 23, 2015 -- The 2015 World Robot Conference opened today at the National Convention Center. Representatives from universities, research institutions, and companies in 16 countries and regions, including the United States, Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan, as well as contestants from the youth robot competition and representatives from 12 international organizations, attended the conference.

　　Qu Daokui, president of Siasun Robot & Automation Co., Ltd., delivered a report titled "Opportunities and Challenges: In-depth Thinking on the Development of China's Robot Industry".

　　The following is a transcript of the speech:

　　Distinguished leaders, experts, and friends, good afternoon! Today, my report will focus on the robot industry, and its title is "Opportunities and Challenges: In-depth Thinking on the Development of China's Robot Industry".

　　Robots have become a global hot topic, but what stage of development have we reached? What problems has robot development encountered? Against the backdrop of the international robot industry, how has China's robot industry progressed? What problems are we facing? Let's discuss the latest progress of China's robot industry.

　　Today's presentation will cover four parts: First, major challenges faced by the robot industry. Second, an in-depth analysis of China's robot industry, including market, technology, and applications. Third, redefining robots and their future development. Fourth, summary.

　　Robots are currently facing a major challenge. This issue will be illustrated using robots and the market. Currently, robots enjoy immense popularity, both technologically and strategically, yet after more than half a century of development, what is their actual market performance? Are robots overhyped or do they live up to their reputation?

　　Robots are one of the greatest technological inventions of the 20th century, and can be called the crown jewel of manufacturing. Simultaneously, robots have become a high-tech area that countries around the world are vying to develop. Robots will change our manufacturing models and our lifestyles in the future. The importance of robots is paramount. However, after more than half a century of development, what is the current market performance of robots?

　　After more than half a century of development, the current number of robots in use is less than 2 million units. China's annual automobile production is 20 million units. As an industry or product, robots are almost negligible. The fact that such an important product has a total of less than 2 million units after more than half a century is surprisingly at odds with its reputation.

　　Why is this? From 2009 to 2014, the world witnessed rapid development in robotics, especially against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, with robots experiencing counter-cyclical growth. The global growth rate was close to 30%, while China's growth rate reached over 50%, nearing 60%. In recent years, the industry has entered a new stage of rapid development, with China being particularly prominent. In 2013, China became the world's largest robot market, and in 2014, the Chinese market grew by 54%, maintaining its position as the world's largest market. It is expected that China will remain the world's largest robot market for the next 10 to 15 years. More importantly, China's robot density is less than half the international average, indicating enormous potential.

　　Let's analyze why, despite the importance of robot technology, the overall market performance is so underwhelming. A significant reason is the serious lag in robot technology. Cost and price are one aspect, but the real issue may lie in technology.

　　Market data shows that the global average robot density is 0.62%, while China's is only 0.3%. In terms of robot replacement rate, it can be considered negligible. Globally, 99.38% of work is still done by humans, with robots accounting for just over 0.6% of the replacement rate. In China, 99.7% of work is still done by humans. This analysis reveals why robots cannot replace such a large amount of work. The key lies in robot technology. In many areas, the lack of supporting robot technology prevents robots from meeting the conditions for replacing human work. Robots simply do not have the conditions to replace human work, not because of cost and price, but because their functionality and performance cannot meet the truly large-scale, rigid demands of manufacturing.

　　What can robots do now? Typical industrial robots lack sensory systems. General vision, force sensing, and other sensory capabilities are absent in current robots. What else do robots lack? Dexterity. A large category of work in manufacturing, especially labor-intensive work, relies on human dexterity, which is precisely what today's robots lack. Lacking both sensory systems and dexterous operating systems, robots, in human terms, are severely disabled and essentially excluded from the employment sphere. This is the current state of robots.

　　Given their current state, what work can today's robots perform? They can only perform programmed, predetermined tasks in structured work environments. Robots are powerless in situations requiring dexterity or adaptability. This problem prevents robots from performing a large category of work, including typical labor-intensive tasks. It is said that a major future trend for robots lies in 3C (communications, electronics, consumer goods), but what kind of work is required here? It involves using actual hands or fingers for dexterous work, which robots cannot do. Robots cannot handle inconsistent work either. A large category of specialized work, lacking specific standards, is also beyond the capabilities of robots. Robots are completely incapable of handling industries with high labor demands. Why? Technological limitations.

　　Another issue is robot safety. Robots and humans cannot currently work collaboratively. Robots must operate within cages, and safety restrictions further limit their applicability. Beyond manufacturing, in areas such as daily life, elderly care, disability assistance, and healthcare, today's robots are also powerless. While many experts have discussed the future development of robots in these areas, it remains a significant unsolved problem today.

　　The role of robots in specialized fields. One is human replacement, and the other is the expansion of human capabilities. In this area, robots are only just beginning. Today, numerous technological limitations confine robots to a very narrow segment of the manufacturing industry. This explains why only 2 million robots exist globally after half a century of development; as an industry, it is negligible. In light of this situation, future breakthroughs in robot technology will primarily focus on the following aspects:

　　First, robot operational capabilities, starting with dexterity; second, increased autonomous decision-making capabilities; third, robot interaction capabilities, moving away from programming and keyboards to other interaction methods. This will address robot operation in complex environments, solve the problem of human-robot integration, and address autonomous awareness issues related to operational decision-making. The focus should be on solving robot interaction capabilities. After these technological breakthroughs, robots will break free from their current status as mechanical equipment used in specialized fields and enter the broader market.

　　The development of robot intelligence technology may go through three stages. The first stage is computational intelligence. Current robots primarily rely on programming and calculation, mainly trajectory calculation. The second stage is perceptual intelligence, incorporating various sensors to improve robot adaptability to external environments. The third stage is cognitive intelligence, which is a longer-term goal. Currently, the focus is on the second stage, "perceptual intelligence," enabling robots to adapt to manufacturing or external environments. Cognitive intelligence requires long-term accumulation; the immediate priority is to achieve breakthroughs in perceptual intelligence.

　　Robots currently possess two main attributes: the first is the machine or mechanical attribute, which has been the focus of robot development. The second is the human attribute: intelligence, wisdom, and dexterity. Today, robots are at a turning point, transitioning from machines to humans, that is, enhancing intelligence.

　　The current state of development of China's robot industry. China has become the largest market for robots, and the number of Chinese robot companies has exploded from dozens to hundreds overnight. According to my data, there are currently 700-800 robot companies with a certain level of influence in China. This is an explosive development in just three to five years. China's robot production has increased, and the development speed has increased, but where is our quality? What is the essence of Chinese robots? (Figure) This shows the performance of China's robot market in 2014. The blue on the left represents the growth of foreign robot companies in China, with a growth of 47%. The red represents the growth of domestic Chinese companies, with a growth of 77%. The comparison on the right uses the statistics from the previous year as a parameter sample. Last year, robot companies continued to maintain this development speed. Without considering the incremental increase, the increase in existing Chinese companies was 25%. This shows that the newly added companies made a significant contribution in one year, meaning that many new companies were created in the new year.

　　(Figure) I have found some key data illustrating the huge problems existing in China's robot industry. These include three aspects: Firstly, at the technical level, in terms of robot complexity, foreign companies account for 90% of multi-joint robots. Secondly, in terms of robot operation difficulty, robots are currently more involved in welding, and foreign companies account for 84% of the welding field. Thirdly, in terms of industry application, the truly high-end applications of robots are mainly concentrated in the automotive industry, where foreign companies account for 90%. Where are Chinese companies? Or, in terms of types of Chinese robots, most of the operations are in handling and palletizing, and in terms of application fields, they may be in the home appliance or metal manufacturing fields. The two 90% figures and the 84% figure show that China's robots are at a significant disadvantage in terms of technology level, that is, the complexity of our robots; in terms of robot operation level; and in terms of the robot application industry. In other words, foreign markets are dominant.

　　In the future, China is likely to be at the low end of the industrial chain, focusing on low-end applications. Another issue is market marginalization; Chinese companies may not be able to enter many mainstream markets, which is a major problem. Therefore, the current problems are the low-end industrial chain in the high-end market and market marginalization.

　　The core technologies of robots include core component design technology, programming technology, control technology, and application operation technology. Key components include drivers, servo systems, and high-precision reducers. In terms of perception systems, vision and force are examples of perception systems. The figure on the right shows robot integration and application. Many, or most, Chinese companies lack core technologies, core components, and key process technologies in perception systems. Therefore, there is a major risk of future technological hollowing-out. Our market has developed, but the core components are hollowed out. In addition, our applications may become low-end, and we may be marginalized in mainstream markets, facing the risk of "tripartite hollowing-out".

　　In China's robot industry, there are more than 30 major development zones and industrial parks, over 100 listed companies with robot concepts, and thousands of large and small companies related to robots, with the main ones numbering in the hundreds. This shows that the scale of China's robot industry has developed. What we really need to do is improve and change our technology, our products, and our market applications. Currently, improving quality is the biggest problem facing China's robot industry. The transition from quantity and speed to true quality and substance is the biggest problem in the development of China's robots.

　　I would like to share with you the latest developments of Siasun Robot & Automation Co., Ltd. in this field, regarding how far China's robot industry should develop.

　　Siasun has become the company with the most complete robot product line, including industrial robots, cleaning robots, special robots, mobile robots, business robots, and service robots. We can provide complete solutions for Industry 4.0. As a global listed company, Siasun's market capitalization is already the third largest globally, following ABB and Fanuc. It is also one of the fastest-growing companies in recent years. Siasun's products have achieved a relatively good position, with two-thirds of Siasun's products used in foreign-funded enterprises. Currently, we export to 23 countries, completely changing the situation where Chinese products were used in low-end applications and struggled to enter international markets. In this aspect, we are ahead of the curve.

　　China is the world's largest market, and it has also become the most fiercely competitive battlefield for robots globally. The number of companies in China's robot industry has grown rapidly in recent years, but the quality of our products needs significant improvement. There are three major potential risks in China's robot industry: firstly, technological hollowing-out; secondly, low-end application; and thirdly, market marginalization. These three major potential risks must be taken seriously and addressed by China's robot industry and Chinese robot companies. Fourthly, it is urgent for China to cultivate internationally competitive enterprises. A country cannot occupy an advantageous or competitive position internationally without internationally leading enterprises.

　　The Chinese government is currently building large platforms related to robots, including research and development platforms, testing and inspection platforms, and other standard platforms. These are supporting platforms needed for the development of China's robot industry.

　　Redefining robots and the development of the next generation of robots

　　Industry 4.0 brings a new concept and redefines products. Although the names of the products have not changed, the essence of the products has undergone a revolutionary change. Someone just asked what a robot is, which is a very difficult question to answer. Let's look at the changes that have taken place in robots.

　　First, let's look at Industry 4.0 and robots. Industry 4.0 is a very hot concept, but many people don't know about the M2.0 that accompanies Industry 4.0. Now, Industry 4.0 is accompanied by a second machine revolution, and the typical representative of this is the new robot. The mission of traditional robots is to support the first three industrial revolutions as a support for large equipment. The fourth industrial revolution must be supported by a new generation of robots that meet the new requirements of interconnection, intercommunication, data, networks, and the cloud. Therefore, there is a major change, which we call the new generation of robots.

　　An era of intelligent manufacturing has arrived, and this era has several basic characteristics. First, the reindustrialization of the United States, the Internet of Things revolution in the United States, the Industry 4.0 of the European Union, Japan's revitalization strategy and the new robot revolution in Japan, and China's Made in China 2025, all mark the entry of the world into a new stage of development. We call this stage the great transformation of intelligence, with intelligence as its core. First, within the large scope of intelligent manufacturing, we need a major transformation of the model. Second, to support intelligent manufacturing, we need intelligent equipment that produces intelligent products, and the design and management methods are digitalized and intelligent. This is an era of great systemic transformation. In this era, what is the driving force behind the progress of this era? Or what are the driving factors for the development of the new industrial revolution?

　　First, technological drive. The current situation of robots is that technology cannot provide support, and many functions and performances cannot meet the needs. The new generation of robots has new technological support. This includes network technology, sensing, big data, new generation materials, etc., with revolutionary changes in technology. Second, market guidance. What does this mean? Overcapacity, personalized and customized product needs, and shortened product lifecycles all require new manufacturing models to support them. Traditional manufacturing models, large-scale manufacturing models, are outdated in the new market environment. Third, the driving force of society. Whether it is the environment, labor costs, or other factors, they force us to enter new manufacturing models. Technology, market, and environment have brought us into the era of a new manufacturing revolution.

　　The robots needed in this stage are not the robots we just talked about; they have completely changed. How are traditional robots defined? They are programmable, multifunctional, high-end equipment with degrees of freedom and flexibility, belonging to the category of mechanical equipment. The definition of the new generation of robots has gone beyond the concept of equipment and has become a true partner of mankind, whether in manufacturing, daily life, or special fields. Robots have always accompanied us. The new robots and traditional robots have undergone revolutionary changes in essence and function, which is the focus of development today. According to this definition, (Figure) McKinsey has made a large distribution. Manufacturing is only one of the fields of robots. In addition, in the fields of medical care, national defense and security, and service life, this is the large space and future large market for robots, a market worth trillions of dollars, representing the new scope of the entire robot market.

　　Based on the new definition and scope of robots, why do countries worldwide consider new robots a national development strategy? Robots are a comprehensive integration of various advanced technologies; their development almost represents a nation's overall technological development level and stage. The robot market is a multi-trillion dollar market. Robots also have significant supporting technologies; they provide enormous support to manufacturing, national defense, and daily life, which is a huge difference between robots and other products. The sustainability of robots: any technology and product has its development stage and life cycle, but the endpoint of robots is almost invisible; they should develop and continue alongside the development of human society.

　　Based on these new changes, let's examine the recent changes in Chinese robots.

　　Taking Siasun as an example, Siasun's latest digital factory uses robots to produce robots, including production systems, logistics systems, and intelligent manufacturing systems, fully forming an Industry 4.0 manufacturing model. Siasun's latest intelligent robot production factory includes an intelligent logistics system, an information management warehousing system, and an intelligent manufacturing process of robots assembling robots. (Short video)

　　Offline programming + precise force control

　　In addition to the progress of industrial robots, new service robots have been launched, and are now being mass-produced and marketed. Today, we see catering service robots replacing waiters in taking orders and serving dishes. Map reconstruction is now being carried out simultaneously, making mobile robots feasible. In the past, markers were required, but now this has been fully realized. In the past, it was difficult for robots to identify whether something ahead was a person or an obstacle; now, through facial recognition, it knows that it is a person, how to interact with a person, and how to avoid obstacles. This has achieved the usability and practicality of mobile robots in complex environments.

　　Finally, I would like to conclude today's presentation by using the newly developed flexible lightweight robot. This robot has a light degree of freedom and can cooperate with humans, possessing perception capabilities. In the past, robots and humans had to be independent and separate; now, using a perception system, robots can fully interact and cooperate with humans.

　　The new or redefined robots have ushered in a new era of robot development. We believe that traditional robots have reached their technological limits, but robot products will continue for ten to fifteen years because China's industrial development is somewhat misaligned and lagging compared to international development. Furthermore, robots are no longer limited to manufacturing; they have entered various aspects of human life. We have seen various robots entering the market. More critically, traditional robots have entered a low value-added era. We are at a critical turning point for robots; traditional robots need upgrading, and new robot products are gradually maturing and entering the market. In conclusion, opportunities and challenges coexist, but we believe that our opportunities far outweigh the challenges. Thank you.